Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Reason to Be Skeptical about the NIE on Iran's Nuclear Program


U.S. Intel Possibly Duped by Iran

Tuesday, December 4, 2007 9:38 AM
By: Kenneth R. Timmerman
President Ahmadinejad on left - can we trust this guy?
Source: http://www.newsmax.com/timmerman/iran_nukes/2007/12/04/54359.html

[NOTE: When I heard about this recent NIE that claims that Iran has suspended its nuclear research program, something did not compute. A leopard doesn't change its spots so easily - after all, they still have thousands of centrifuges to enrich uranium, continue to call the USA the "Great Satan," send money and arms to Hezbollah, haven't renounced their intention of wiping Israel off the map, nor have they withdrawn the terrorists they sent into Iraq to kill our troops. To see the report for yourself, go to http://www.odni.gov/]

A highly controversial, 150 page National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear programs was coordinated and written by former State Department political and intelligence analysts — not by more seasoned members of the U.S. intelligence community, Newsmax has learned.

Its most dramatic conclusion — that Iran shut down its nuclear weapons program in 2003 in response to international pressure — is based on a single, unvetted source who provided information to a foreign intelligence service and has not been interviewed directly by the United States.

Newsmax sources in Tehran believe that Washington has fallen for “a deliberate disinformation campaign” cooked up by the Revolutionary Guards, who laundered fake information and fed it to the United States through Revolutionary Guards intelligence officers posing as senior diplomats in Europe.

Dangerous Game

The National Intelligence Council, which produced the NIE, is chaired by Thomas Fingar, “a State Department intelligence analyst with no known overseas experience who briefly headed the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research,” I wrote in my book "Shadow Warriors: The Untold Story of Traitors, Saboteurs, and the Party of Surrender."

Fingar was a key partner of Senate Democrats in their successful effort to derail the confirmation of John Bolton in the spring of 2005 to become the U.S. permanent representative to the United Nations.

As the head of the NIC, Fingar has gone out of his way to fire analysts “who asked the wrong questions,” and who challenged the politically-correct views held by Fingar and his former State Department colleagues, as revealed in "Shadow Warriors."

In March 2007, Fingar fired his top Cuba and Venezuela analyst, Norman Bailey, after he warned of the growing alliance between Castro and Chavez.
Bailey’s departure from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) was applauded by the Cuban government news service Granma, who called Bailey “a patent relic of the Reagan regime.” And Fingar was just one of a coterie of State Department officials brought over to ODNI by the first director, career State Department official John Negroponte.

Collaborating with Fingar on the Iran estimate, released on Monday, were Kenneth Brill, the director of the National Counterproliferation Center, and Vann H. Van Diepen, the National Intelligence officer for Weapons of Mass Destruction and Proliferation.

“Van Diepen was an enormous problem,” a former colleague of his from the State Department told me when I was fact gathering for "Shadow Warriors."
“He was insubordinate, hated WMD sanctions, and strived not to implement them,” even though it was his specific responsibility at State to do so, the former colleague told me.

Kenneth Brill, also a career foreign service officer, had been the U.S. representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna in 2003-2004 before he was forced into retirement.

"Shadow Warrior" reports, “While in Vienna, Brill consistently failed to confront Iran once its clandestine nuclear weapons program was exposed in February 2003, and had to be woken up with the bureaucratic equivalent of a cattle prod to deliver a single speech condemning Iran’s eighteen year history of nuclear cheating.”

Negroponte rehabilitated Brill and brought the man who single-handedly failed to object to Iran’s nuclear weapons program and put him in charge of counter-proliferation efforts for the entire intelligence community.

Christian Westermann, another favorite of Senate Democrats in the Bolton confirmation hearings, was among the career State Department analysts tapped by Fingar and Brill.

As a State Department intelligence analyst, Westermann had missed the signs of biological weapons development in Cuba, and played into the hands of Castro apologist Sen. Christopher Dodd, D, Conn., by continuing to use impeached intelligence reports on Cuba that had been written by self-avowed Cuban spy, Ana Belen Montes.

“After failing to recognize the signs of biological weapons development in Cuba and Cuba’s cooperation with Iran, Westermann was promoted to become national intelligence officer for biological weapons,” I wrote.

“Let’s hope a walk-in defector from Iranian intelligence doesn’t tell us that Iran has given biological weapons to terrorists to attack new York or Chicago,” I added, “because Westermann will certainly object that the source of that information was not reliable — at least, until Americans start dying.”

It now appears that this is very similar to what happened while the intelligence community was preparing the Iran NIE.
UPDATE: President Bush was quick to defend his position on Iran in the following Townhall.com article: http://www.townhall.com/news/us/2007/12/04/bush_iran_still_a_danger_despite_report
An Independent Media Review Analysis by Yaakove Katz of the Jerusalem Post describes the Israeli position on Iran's nuke program at
http://www.imra.org.il/story.php3?id=37110
Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations continue to be suspicious of Iran, as evidenced by the following article in Opinion Journal: http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110010968
Former ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton smells a rat and wrote the following article for the Washington Post:
Follow the money: Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, one of the richest men in Iran (with a vested interest in the nuclear program) is identified as the source that influenced the authors of the NIE. http://www.americanthinker.com/2007/12/post_10.html

No comments: