Ho-Hum

Usually, in presidential campaigns, I don't pay much attention to polls (except for the big one in Nov.), but today's Evans-Novak Political Report (written by Tim Carney while Robert Novak is in the hospital) is worth a little comment or two.

"The usefulness in national polls is in getting rough ideas of a candidate's popularity, and more importantly as a judge of momentum. It is on this latter score that Obama needs to worry. On June 4, Rasmussen Reports released its first daily tracking poll of the general election (3,000 likely voters over three nights, with a margin of error of +/-2%), and it showed Obama 47%, McCain 45%. Fifty-seven days later, the Wednesday, July 30 poll showed Obama at 48% to McCain's 46%-virtually no movement. In the interim, neither candidate has shown movement outside the margin of error.

"The first observation to draw is that voters aren't paying close attention, and so minimal movement is to be expected. This is important: It's still too early to foresee the outcome of the race.

"But the deeper significance of these national poll numbers is the way in which Obama lags his party and has failed to break 50% nationally, even while all the breaks go his way."

EDITORIAL COMMENT: Much has been made of the "bounce" that Obama's recently-concluded world tour gave to his campaign, but more sober observers have noted that the rise, if any, does not live up to the hype, and his campaign ought to be concerned about the fact that his poll numbers are not as high as Gore in July 2000 or Kerry in July 2004. That leaves him with a much smaller margin for error, and one slip-up may be just enough to do in his bid for the presidency. In this way Sen. McCain could, like Inspector Clouseau, back into a solution while appearing to be headed in the wrong direction.